Saturday greatly cleaned up what has been one of the greatest playoff chases in the NHL's history. Montreal won, which meant Florida was out, and Carolina was hanging by a thread. The Islanders lost, which for all intents and purposes, meant they were out. Tampa Bay finally managed to string a couple of solid performances together, and almost guaranteed their chances. I decided, let's just break down the Habs and Leafs and talk about what went wrong for the others.
Of course, then Sunday happened. Carolina won in OT, and the Leafs were demoralized 7-2 at the Garden. That brought the Islanders, with a game in hand on those two as well as Montreal, plus a home game against the Canadiens, back to life.
Thank you Sunday. You ruined my column.
I was so eagerly ready to write the 'Canes and Isles off. Now I have to go back to my original, "Who's in, Who's Out" idea. We have a four-team race going into the final week of the season, let's look at all four in the running and tell you why they will and won't make it.
Montreal Canadiens
Remaining Schedule: Vs. Boston, @ NY Rangers, Vs. Toronto
Why They'll Make It: Because everyone seems to believe that this team is still on the meteoric downfall they were a couple of months ago. But people forget, five wins in a row will take you places if you're a bubble team in this incarnation of the NHL, which the Canadiens did from the 17th to the 27th. Halak has gotten this team on track, and Huet could drive it the rest of the way to a first-round loss to the Sabres.
Why They Won't: However, with Boston, the Rangers and the Leafs left, it's very possible that they could finish it off with four out of five in the loss column, and that'll do about as much bad as winning five in a row.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Remaining Schedule: Vs. Philadelphia, @ NY Islanders, Vs. Montreal
Why They'll Make It: Because when Kaberle isn't admiring his own pass while getting decked by Cam Janssen, he's a pretty darn good defenseman. He can rack up a lot of points in a quick span against an undisciplined team. Also, they have that all-important game in hand in their pockets, as well as one more meeting with the Flyers. A lot of factors work in their favor.
Why They Won't: Because they are simply too flawed to make it. McCabe gets more assists on opponent's goals than on teammates'. Raycroft will break down if this team shows the slightest weakness, and the offense is not necessarily anything to write home about. Finally, be honest with me here since most of the readers are based in the U.S., do you really want to see the Leafs in the playoffs? Is that something you can live with? Thought so.
Carolina Hurricanes
Remaining Schedule: @ Tampa, vs. Atlanta, vs. Florida
Why They'll Make It: Because every single time on this Web site, when I have counted the Hurricanes out - Round 2, Round 3, Round 4, Game 7 - I have failed to predict their demise. Why shouldn't they make the post-season? I don't think they will, so therefore the exact opposite will happen.
Why They Won't: Because, realistically, they just haven't been good enough. Aaron Ward and Matt Cullen really were difference makers. Anson Carter isn't. This team was depleted by injuries on defense all year and didn't do enough at the deadline. Cam Ward is Dwayne Roloson with a Conn Smythe Trophy and a ring, he got hot for a few weeks. He wasn't even consistent during the playoffs. (Few remember how he got pulled during the Eastern Finals?) Simply too much is working against them.
New York Islanders
Remaining Schedule: vs. NY Rangers, vs. Toronto, @Philadelphia, @New Jersey
Why They'll Make It: They have the most favorable schedule, in the sense that they have the most games. But don't count out the Isles. They're season kind of played out like The Producers. With Charles Wang out to put on the greatest flop in hockey history, he hired Garth Snow as Bloom to his Bialystock, signed aging veteran players and a coach who'd been out of hockey for a decade. Somehow, it almost worked.
Why they Won't: Because nobody with a starting goaltender who's nickname is "Dubie" should make the playoffs. If Ricky D. were still in their for New York, even if he was concussed, New York would still have a fighting shot. But the clock will strike 12 on these Isles before Sunday, and it's a shame. Until Chris Simon decided to become an Atlanta Braves fan and do a tomahawk chop, this was a team worth rooting for. A hard-working bunch with a coach who had a chip on his shoulder and a team everyone counted out. But time will run out on the Isles; it's just a matter of when.
Speaking of the postseason, for the first time since the start of this season I looked at my playoff predictions, where I stated that the following would happen:
East
1. Buffalo
2. Tampa Bay
3. New Jersey
4. NY Rangers
5. Boston
6. Montreal
7. Carolina
8. Ottawa
9. Atlanta
10. Philadelphia
11. Toronto
12. NY Islanders
13. Pittsburgh
14. Washington
15. Florida
West
1. Nashville
2. Anaheim
3. Calgary
4. Detroit
5. Minnesota
6. San Jose
7. Dallas
8. Phoenix
9. Edmonton
10. Columbus
11. Colorado
12. Chicago
13. Vancouver
14. St. Louis
15. Los Angeles
Other then a few glaring mistakes, they look pretty good. But c'mon, how was I supposed to see Vancouver becoming New Jersey West? Or Pittsburgh being able to put it all together? Was I trashed on Robitussin when I picked Phoenix and Boston?
Answers:
1. Fair, not that easy to see
2. Still should've seen it coming
3. Very, very possible.
Anyway, I'm very proud of my picks, for what it's worth. Seeing my talent as a prognosticator, that gives you ample reason to watch for my exclusive SFM Playoff Preview! (MMM...plug).
In last year's playoffs, I got five out of eight right in round one (Including a sweep of the East), and basically blanked out the rest of the way. See if I can do any better starting next Monday with the Eastern Conference primer, Tuesday with the West, and Wednesday - the day the playoffs open - with predictions. Expect expert opinions from some of the best minds that cover the game (or at least the people who returned my E-Mails). See you next week!
-SFM-
